Light at the End of the Tunnel? Sharp Bitcoin Price Moves Expected as Volatility Hits Record Lows

Could there be light at the end of the dark crypto tunnel? Bitcoin’s price has been range-bound for the most part of the past 3-4 months. However, analysts are sure that an upward move is imminent, citing muted volatility and seller exhaustion as the key driving forces. The current sideways trading range is between $18,000 and $25,000. It has been in effect for 126 days, and some experts believe it’s coming to an end soon.

Both on and off-chain data suggest such a movement. Multiple signals have been flashing for quite some time now. On-week realized volatility is 28%, a level which is typically followed by a sharp upward move. More importantly, some stats such as aSOPR suggest that seller exhaustion has reached its max, proposing that we’re finally in for some good news regarding Bitcoin’s price.

Trading Indicators at Pivot Points

Right now, Bitcoin’s price is hanging into the low $19,000s. It’s a bear market for sure, but the price has been in this range for a while. Last week, we said that the bottom of the bear market is near according to a new accurate drilling analysis. Now, new metrics show that the analysis may have been right, so we’re all eagerly expecting any upward price movement.

As we mentioned earlier, numerous indicators are flashing positive signals about a strong directional move. Independent market analyst Big Smokey is supporting these views. He tweeted that the Bitcoin price range, Bollinger Bands, and SuperGuppy are getting real tight, and the same can be said for Ethereum. This means that we might be in for a change pretty soon.

Delphi Digital, a crypto research firm, mirrored the same perspective in a new report. It cited compression within the Guppy Multiple Moving Average that indicates short-term momentum. It also boosts the potential of a rally as it attempts to flip the long-term moving averages. Researchers from the firm also referenced the Bollinger Bank Width Percentile metric, suggesting a big move in the works for Bitcoin. In the past, these readings above 90 or below 5 have marked major price swings, and that could be the case once again.

What About the Rest of the Market?

It’s not just Bitcoin – many of its derivatives flash the same signals. For example, the Bitcoin futures open interest has reached about 633,000 contracts, more than in the past. Trading volumes have plummeted to $24 billion daily, which is a multi-year low. The last time things were like this was in December 2020, just before the legendary bull cycle that helped Bitcoin reach new price heights.

The following volatility spike could result in a sharp upward price move, the one we’ve been waiting all along. Currently, the money going in and out of the market has declined, which is typical for a bear market. But, if the recent expert analysis is right and if the drilling model is accurate, there’s finally a positive shift coming.

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