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If you haven’t heard the news, Bitcoin is rocking its highest price since May 2022. In a time where major moves weren’t expected, it has suddenly gone well back up. When we say up, we don’t mean the regular price jumps that put it close to $30,000. This time, the
Late last night, Bitcoin went on a major run that seemingly had no fuel behind it. But, the price jump occurred due to some fake Bitcoin ETF news. While optimism around Bitcoin ETF’s has grown considerably lately, there’s been nothing on that front so far. On Tuesday, some media outlets
No good or fresh news on the Bitcoin price front. The debilitating price drops continue with slight shoots up that aren’t enough to get Bitcoin over the $27,000 hump. It’s clear that the market isn’t headed in the right direction, and despite some positive signs, it seems there’s always some
Last week, we talked about the upward potential of Bitcoin’s price. Uptober was doing great and great things were expected early in November. However, that kind of optimism waned in the wake of the most recent price drop that took off almost $2,000 from Bitcoin’s price. Currently trading at just over $18,000, Bitcoin has hit a new low and is bringing the market down with it. So, what’s the reason for the latest drop after a relatively quiet period? Warring crypto billionaires might be to blame.
Breaking Down the Stock Market Correlation
For the past year, Bitcoin has been closely related to the stock market performance. With prices dropping to the low $17,000 on November 8, a new yearly low, Bitcoin’s correlation to the stock market is broken. NASDAQ is only down 0.32%, while Dow Jones saw 0.48% gains. In the middle of the midterm elections in the USA, Bitcoin’s price has fallen down once again, and this time it’s a pretty bad drop.
Why is that? Over $224 million BTC longs were liquidated on November 8, and more may be on the way. If the FTX situation is not resolved soon (showing over $6 billion deficit right now), a sharp sell-off could trigger a liquidation cascade. This could send the price to new lows, which we certainly don’t want.
The good news is that Binance has made a bid to purchase FTX, and the deal is supposed to pass through soon. However, it won’t happen if the spat between the leaders of both exchanges is resolved. Negative news about FTX’s sister companies are bringing the exchange down, and could lead to numerous withdrawal requests. This would destabilize the market further, which means new price drops. It never ends, doesn’t it?
Rising interest rates in the USA and the negative global approach to cryptocurrencies is further weighing the price down. Altcoins are suffering too, erasing all the great effort made in regards to the price in the past few months. Bitcoin’s volatility has been wiped, and great things were expected until this latest blow. Suppressed retail and institutional inflow isn’t helping, leaving the market’s state in limbo.
What Happens Next?
Is there a chance for the price to reverse course? Of course – anything can happen by the end of the year. The short-term insecurities don’t seem to have changed the long-term outlook. Over 90% of institutional investors are interested in tokenized assets for the coming years. In layman’s terms, people still believe in DeFi and the blockchain technology, and nothing will ever shake up their beliefs.
FTX’s worries are key to the waning crypto prices, but this too shall pass. As soon as the exchange’s future is resolved, we expect the price to go up as well. We’ve seen it done before and it’ll surely happen again. As more and more institutions and companies turn to digital assets, especially for settlement purposes, Bitcoin’s price could gain an upward momentum, which is what we’re all waiting for.
For the past week (and a bit more), Bitcoin has managed to beat expectations and stay in the $20,000 trade range. The so-called ‘Uptober’ optimism has been holding ground, with many major investors and market participants buying into the idea that the price will remain over $20K. For the first time since July, Bitcoin closed a monthly candle in the green. It is currently trading close to $20,500, so while there have been no major developments, the stabilization is a good thing.
It’s clear that volatility in the market has settled right now, making BTC trading a bit of boring. Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Crypto fans believe that Uptober was just the beginning, with Moonvember coming next. A breakout is way-past due, and we may be seeing it soon.
No Bullish Momentum…Yet
Bitcoin’s lack of volatility is a good thing. There were many predictions about major price drops down to $12,000 by the end of the year, but Uptober messed it all up and we’re glad. The price is pretty stable right now, although a far cry from the legendary November 2021 run. However, after almost a year of setbacks, the price has settled in the $20,000 range, which is obviously a sign that volatility has settled too.
Both stocks and cryptocurrencies are down sharply this year. Last week, Bitcoin’s 20-day rolling volatility fell below the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indexes for the first time in around two years. As the Fed’s interest rates continue going up and with a strengthening dollar on the horizon, it’s not that much of a surprise. Bitcoin was never imagined as an asset that relates with stocks, but their dependence increased as institutional investors started pouring money into crypto.
Due to all of this and some technical pointers, it’s clear that the bearish market isn’t over yet. A bull run is coming—sooner rather than later—but it may be too early as of right now. For many investors, the eased volatility is a great sign. It means that the price is bottoming out just like it did in 2015, which was followed by a bullish pattern. We all know that when prices start rising they could hit amazing new heights, and that’s the reason why experts invest a 180 turn.
The End to a Long Crypto Winter?
While it’s too early to say it’s the end of the crypto winter, the latest signals have been very positive. It’s not just Bitcoin – Dogecoin of all cryptos has led the recent rally. However, the crypto winter was largely a result of tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve and after a few years with the Coronavirus restrictions and the still-ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The ice, however, is beginning to thaw, and we might be nearing the end of the long and hard crypto winter. Everything’s looking up at the moment. Mastercard has just announced a brand-new service that will help banks to offer crypto trading. Visa has partnered with leading crypto exchange FTX to offer debit cards to users’ trading accounts. It shows that the world is starting to change, and as more institutions and countries accept Bitcoin and crypto, the crypto winter will end.
In the past few months, it seems obvious that Bitcoin has lost its famous volatility. The price has been stuck for some time now, with everyone wondering if it’ll ever go up again. Those predicted drops as low as $12K never happened, baffling the industry’s experts. Last week, we wrote how the light at the end of the long and dark tunnel may be glowing brighter, with a breakout due anytime now.
From the beginning of this week, Bitcoin and Ethereum have had significant gains. The global macro-economic state surely played a part in it, and one analyst believes that the compression cycle which has been going on for months will soon stop. Michael van de Poppe has predicted many crypto things right before, and he believes that $30K is coming next month.
Already on the Way?
The bear market seems to be giving way to bulls, but very slowly. Bitcoin has grown almost 5% in the past 24 hours, and you can double that for Ethereum. It’s seen as a very positive sign among crypto investors and holders, with many experts believing a shake-up is coming. van de Poppe is among those who believe a breakout is due soon, thinking that Bitcoin will ‘probably hit $30,000’ next month.
The BTC/USD market is currently marked by a very distinct lack of volatility. However, many signs are pointing that’s about to change. Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands are the tightest they’ve been against NASDAQ, which all but guarantees an explosive move. The last time that happened was in April 2021, and it has been consolidating in the past 1.5 years.
Experts say that there should be a strong Bitcoin outperformance very soon. For van de Poppe, the upside potential is very appealing. The BTC/USD ratio is set to go up 35% in a couple of weeks, which might be the big break everyone was counting on.
For that to happen, though, the proposed target rally of $21,000 must happen first. That should come later this week, and may already very well be on the way considering the market’s performance this week. It’s looking good for a last leg up, with demand moving up as well.
Time to HODL
Exchanges are seeing a lot of BTC leave their books, while hodlers will keep their ground and won’t sell at the moment. They will place a key role in the possible bull market that’s coming, maybe as early as next month. While the number of Bitcoin holders is small, their belief is unshaken. Their balance continues to grow too, which shows that they’re all thinking for the long run.
Predictions for Bitcoin’s future put it at about $2 million in 2028, as Larry Lepard thinks. That might be too optimistic, but the $30,000 price may really come next month. And it’s way overdue. Bitcoin’s price has been in the backseat for a while now, and many gave up hope. But, we always say wait for the bulls, and a stampede should come soon.
Could there be light at the end of the dark crypto tunnel? Bitcoin’s price has been range-bound for the most part of the past 3-4 months. However, analysts are sure that an upward move is imminent, citing muted volatility and seller exhaustion as the key driving forces. The current sideways trading range is between $18,000 and $25,000. It has been in effect for 126 days, and some experts believe it’s coming to an end soon.
Both on and off-chain data suggest such a movement. Multiple signals have been flashing for quite some time now. On-week realized volatility is 28%, a level which is typically followed by a sharp upward move. More importantly, some stats such as aSOPR suggest that seller exhaustion has reached its max, proposing that we’re finally in for some good news regarding Bitcoin’s price.
Trading Indicators at Pivot Points
Right now, Bitcoin’s price is hanging into the low $19,000s. It’s a bear market for sure, but the price has been in this range for a while. Last week, we said that the bottom of the bear market is near according to a new accurate drilling analysis. Now, new metrics show that the analysis may have been right, so we’re all eagerly expecting any upward price movement.
As we mentioned earlier, numerous indicators are flashing positive signals about a strong directional move. Independent market analyst Big Smokey is supporting these views. He tweeted that the Bitcoin price range, Bollinger Bands, and SuperGuppy are getting real tight, and the same can be said for Ethereum. This means that we might be in for a change pretty soon.
Delphi Digital, a crypto research firm, mirrored the same perspective in a new report. It cited compression within the Guppy Multiple Moving Average that indicates short-term momentum. It also boosts the potential of a rally as it attempts to flip the long-term moving averages. Researchers from the firm also referenced the Bollinger Bank Width Percentile metric, suggesting a big move in the works for Bitcoin. In the past, these readings above 90 or below 5 have marked major price swings, and that could be the case once again.
What About the Rest of the Market?
It’s not just Bitcoin – many of its derivatives flash the same signals. For example, the Bitcoin futures open interest has reached about 633,000 contracts, more than in the past. Trading volumes have plummeted to $24 billion daily, which is a multi-year low. The last time things were like this was in December 2020, just before the legendary bull cycle that helped Bitcoin reach new price heights.
The following volatility spike could result in a sharp upward price move, the one we’ve been waiting all along. Currently, the money going in and out of the market has declined, which is typical for a bear market. But, if the recent expert analysis is right and if the drilling model is accurate, there’s finally a positive shift coming.
Crypto investors and fans are always trying to guess the price today, tomorrow, or in the long run. More experienced crypto investors, though, stick to other metrics that try to predict things like the bottom of a bear market. Which is easier said than done. Building an accurate model for these kinds of metrics is challenging, and until recently, models could find the top or bottom of a bear market with relative accuracy.
Luckily, Glassnode’s experts have developed a new drilling model that had a 100% hit rate in tests. Known as the drilling method, it can predict the bottom of a bear market with almost pinpoint accuracy. Created by prominent Bitcoin investors Trace Mayer, Glassnode has used the drilling method on the latest bear market run, and it’s good news – it should be close to an end.
The Mayer Multiple
Trace Mayer is the creator of the so-called Mayer Multiple model that has been used to accurately predict Bitcoin’s price over a 200-day moving average. More specifically, the Mayer Multiple has been used to predict if Bitcoin is in a bubble or in the clear. However, Mayer recently discovered that the model can be re-adjusted to predict the top of a bull market if the multiple is at 2.4. A multiple below 1 indicates a bear market.
Experts now believe that a multiple higher than 2.4 shows that Bitcoin is overbought and that buyer exhaustion is near. By taking this metric, the current price, and the percentage of Bitcoin in circulation, Glassnode identified where Bitcoin currently stands in this market cycle. The model was used in previous market cycles between 2010 and 2022, and predicted the bottoms of bear markets with pinpoint accuracy. Not surprisingly, the market is in bear territory right now, which typically lasts for 6-12 months. Luckily, we’re currently on or near the bottom of this cycle as the bear market started in mid-June.
Additionally, whales have been stockpiling BTC for a while now, probably getting ready for what lies ahead.
Good Times Ahead?
Here’s hoping this rings true. The prediction agrees with similar bottom indicators including the weekly RSI, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, and the 50-week/100-week moving averages. Of course, this isn’t real science so there’s a possibility everything’s wrong and the bear market stays locked in for a long time.
Given the world’s financial difficulties, the increasing interest rates, a global stock market on the brink of collapse, and the Russia-Ukraine war that’s been escalating in recent weeks, a bull run may be pretty far away. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s volatility is highly unpredictable, and a new bullish wave can begin at any time.
At the moment, Bitcoin just suffered another drop below $20,000, currently holding on to a slim $19,000. Resistance is around $19,420, and it’s pretty bulletproof. The next support area is in the $16,000 range, and many experts believe that the worst is coming soon before things take a turn for the better.
